DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures DB-FPX 8415 Strategic Decision Making ​​​​​​​Scenario Planning Frameworks

Scenario planning frameworks serve as objective tools designed to formulate tactical solutions (Tighe, 2019). These frameworks are utilized to anticipate an organization’s future, effectively revealing potential environmental changes over time. Additionally, scenario planning is crucial for organizations to develop multiple strategies to mitigate unforeseen outcomes. A synthesis matrix has been developed based on four scenario-building frameworks, organized horizontally by four authors and vertically by key points. It is important to note that not all sources address every key point, resulting in some empty spaces. This matrix facilitates a clear evaluation of the differences among the four frameworks, enabling the selection of the most suitable one for planning the future of the pharmaceutical industry.

Part 1: Scenario Synthesis

• Day & Schoemaker (2005)
• Godet & Roubelat (1996)
• Hussain et al. (2017)
• Ramirez et al. (2017)

Synthesis Main Points

• Evaluates the necessity for change within your company by recognizing and understanding early weak signals.
• Identifies and evaluates strategic options through four criteria: relevance, consistency, likelihood, and transparency.
• Analyzes your company’s historical limitations using road mapping and scenario planning.
• Rather than forecasting your company’s future, focus on assessing its strengths and reframing perceptions.

It is common for businesses to employ scenario planning to explore alternatives for their future. This process identifies and applies various scenarios to business contingencies, enabling management to make informed decisions. Whether it involves assessing company needs by recognizing weaknesses early (Day & Schoemaker, 2005) or evaluating strategic options based on criteria like relevance and consistency (Godet & Roubelat, 1996), scenario planning is a valuable approach for exploring and preparing for future possibilities.

DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures

Understanding your organization’s limitations and utilizing road mapping (Hussain et al., 2017) can enhance its effectiveness in chaotic environments. Strategic planning can be approached in various ways. Instead of focusing solely on predicting the future, it is beneficial to concentrate on your organization’s strengths to reshape perceptions (Ramirez et al., 2017). Ultimately, scenario planning consists of two main components: selecting a logical scenario and anticipating potential outcomes.

Understanding the Signals Early

Defines the vision for your company by asking pertinent questions and learning from past experiences. It is crucial to recognize and not overlook warning signs. In today’s business landscape, understanding the “what ifs” is vital. Organizations can achieve this by enhancing their peripheral vision (Day & Schoemaker, 2005) or by identifying key variables and posing the right questions (Godet & Roubelat, 1996). An organization may choose to create a roadmap instead of a scenario (Hussain et al., 2017). Rather than merely predicting “what ifs,” a company can reshape its strategy by actively exploring plausible scenarios (Ramirez et al., 2017).

Strategic Scenario Planning

Examines the needs and capabilities of the company. Once the scope is established, asking the right questions aids in determining how to address and guide the vision. It promotes the identification of key variables and participation in future workshops. This process involves experts analyzing the company and providing insights on new growth opportunities, integrating scenario planning with technology road mapping to reveal practical limitations. Formulating hypotheses and asking the right questions are crucial steps in defining prospective thinking.

Strategic scenario planning is vital for any business aiming to navigate various uncertainties (Ringland, 2010). To achieve a clear peripheral vision during scenario planning, a company must ask open-ended questions, ensuring precise responses (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). Furthermore, when identifying and evaluating strategic options, involving experts for analysis and reporting on potential opportunities is essential (Godet & Roubelat, 1996). Learning from past mistakes to prevent their recurrence (Hussain et al., 2017) and focusing on reasonable rather than likely weak signals (Ramirez et al., 2017) are also effective strategies for scenario planning.

Scenario Planning and Technology Road Mapping

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